⭐ Flagship Strategy

Garuda Alpha — Live State

Cross-sectional momentum on IDX. Survivorship-safe, walk-forward validated, with a Bayesian regime-filter overlay. Data as-of 2026-10-16, refreshed nightly.

Total Return

+314%

JCI -18%

CAGR

+17.5%

2018–2026

Sharpe

0.90

JCI -0.35

Max DD

-15.4%

JCI -43.2%

Profit Factor

1.94

win 43%

Gates

4/7

§3.7 robustness

Equity Curve

Cumulative growth of Rp 1 vs JCI buy & hold

Current Regime · Bayesian Filter

As-of 2026-10-16

DEFENSIVE

DEFENSIVE — belief-weighted

Composite macro score -1 (range −6 to +7), filtered through a sticky Bayesian belief over four regimes. Positioned for capital preservation at next rebalance.

belief L/N/D/O = 0.00 / 0.02 / 0.89 / 0.09 · prior hard map: DEFENSIVE @ 0.70×

Gross Exposure

0.68×

EXPECTED · BRF

Active Picks

Top-12 by Composite Score (currently investable universe)

Screening recomputed nightly on latest prices (as-of 2026-10-16) — portfolio execution only at quarterly rebalance: last 2026-10-01 · next 2027-01-01 (first trading day of quarter). Names sized to the prevailing gross-exposure multiplier. Sector caps and single-name caps enforced at construction.

#	Ticker	Composite	Momentum	Trend	Quality	LowVol	ADTV
1	MARK	92.4	98.8	100.0	94.9	64.6	Rp 16.2 Bn
2	BSSR	88.7	98.2	100.0	77.2	70.1	Rp 15.3 Bn
3	TAPG	85.0	88.4	99.2	98.7	36.6	Rp 29.0 Bn
4	DMAS	84.3	97.6	91.7	98.1	26.2	Rp 21.7 Bn
5	ULTJ	83.7	99.4	83.3	77.8	61.6	Rp 47.4 Bn
6	AADI	81.6	91.5	96.7	73.4	51.8	Rp 102.9 Bn
7	EMAS	77.5	79.3	81.7	100.0	34.1	Rp 75.6 Bn
8	PTBA	69.8	90.2	73.3	43.7	62.8	Rp 124.0 Bn
9	AALI	68.5	92.7	84.2	21.5	67.1	Rp 22.3 Bn
10	ERAA	63.2	100.0	90.8	8.2	30.5	Rp 52.5 Bn
11	LSIP	60.2	82.3	0.0	90.5	61.0	Rp 15.9 Bn
12	BBCA	57.9	62.2	0.0	97.5	76.8	Rp 1009.6 Bn

Note on Trend: Trend factor is binary-scaled (0 if price below 200-day EMA, 50+ with persistence if above). Currently 83% of the picks trade above their 200-day EMA, so Trend reads ~50 almost uniformly and adds little discrimination — the ranking is driven by momentum/quality/lowvol differentials. Trend re-asserts itself as a filter when the regime turns.

Validation

Walk-Forward Robustness (7 windows, expanding in-sample)

Canonical factor weighting wins every in-sample window. Mean out-of-sample Sharpe: +0.81. Refit per window does not beat the fixed canonical — strong evidence the strategy is not curve-fit.

Window	OOS Period	IS Winner	IS Sharpe	OOS Sharpe
WF1	2019-01-01 → 2019-12-31	canonical	+0.78	-0.31
WF2	2020-01-01 → 2020-12-31	canonical	+0.40	+1.70
WF3	2021-01-01 → 2021-12-31	canonical	+0.76	+1.30
WF4	2022-01-01 → 2022-12-31	canonical	+0.89	+1.25
WF5	2023-01-01 → 2023-12-31	canonical	+0.94	-0.58
WF6	2024-01-01 → 2024-12-31	canonical	+0.77	+0.13
WF7	2025-01-01 → 2026-06-02	canonical	+0.69	+2.20

Documentation

Full Methodology & Operations

Deep-dive thesis documents and operational playbook. All data-driven, regenerated from the live backtest.

📄

Institutional Thesis

IC-ready, methodology-focused

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Research Thesis

Full deep-dive, with formulas

📖

Operational Playbook

Daily / weekly / quarterly ops

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Live Dashboard

Full operational dashboard

    Generated 2026-10-16 21:59 WIB · data as-of 2026-10-16 ·
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