HPQuant
Garuda Alpha v1.0
🦅 Garuda Alpha · Flagship Strategy
Cross-sectional momentum on IDX. Survivorship-safe, walk-forward validated, with a Bayesian regime-filter overlay. Data as-of 2026-08-04, refreshed nightly.
Composite macro score -2 (range −6 to +7), filtered through a sticky Bayesian belief over four regimes. Positioned for defensive posture at next rebalance.
belief L/N/D/O = 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.29 / 0.71 · prior hard map: DEFENSIVE @ 0.70×
Screening recomputed nightly on latest prices (as-of 2026-08-04) — portfolio execution only at quarterly rebalance: last 2026-07-01 · next 2026-10-01 (first trading day of quarter). Names sized to the prevailing gross-exposure multiplier. Sector caps and single-name caps enforced at construction.
| # | Ticker | Composite | Momentum | Trend | Quality | LowVol | ADTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MARK | 91.1 | 98.2 | 78.3 | 94.5 | 86.1 | Rp 20.7 Bn |
| 2 | TAPG | 84.0 | 94.5 | 55.8 | 98.2 | 49.1 | Rp 24.2 Bn |
| 3 | ADRO | 80.7 | 91.5 | 75.8 | 71.2 | 72.7 | Rp 78.3 Bn |
| 4 | TINS | 76.5 | 86.1 | 78.3 | 62.0 | 21.8 | Rp 153.4 Bn |
| 5 | AADI | 75.8 | 93.9 | 53.3 | 74.2 | 49.7 | Rp 75.9 Bn |
| 6 | MAPI | 70.9 | 99.7 | 78.3 | 25.2 | 41.8 | Rp 63.4 Bn |
| 7 | ITMG | 68.6 | 92.7 | 53.3 | 51.5 | 68.5 | Rp 29.7 Bn |
| 8 | AKRA | 66.0 | 90.3 | 58.3 | 41.1 | 59.4 | Rp 30.4 Bn |
| 9 | ELSA | 65.3 | 90.9 | 55.8 | 40.5 | 30.3 | Rp 22.4 Bn |
| 10 | GGRM | 63.6 | 97.6 | 78.3 | 3.7 | 46.1 | Rp 26.6 Bn |
| 11 | EMAS | 63.5 | 83.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 27.3 | Rp 109.9 Bn |
| 12 | RAJA | 55.9 | 61.8 | 60.0 | 47.9 | 50.0 | Rp 176.6 Bn |
Canonical factor weighting wins every in-sample window. Mean out-of-sample Sharpe: +0.81. Refit per window does not beat the fixed canonical — strong evidence the strategy is not curve-fit.
| Window | OOS Period | IS Winner | IS Sharpe | OOS Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WF1 | 2019-01-01 → 2019-12-31 | canonical | +0.78 | -0.31 |
| WF2 | 2020-01-01 → 2020-12-31 | canonical | +0.40 | +1.70 |
| WF3 | 2021-01-01 → 2021-12-31 | canonical | +0.76 | +1.30 |
| WF4 | 2022-01-01 → 2022-12-31 | canonical | +0.89 | +1.25 |
| WF5 | 2023-01-01 → 2023-12-31 | canonical | +0.94 | -0.58 |
| WF6 | 2024-01-01 → 2024-12-31 | canonical | +0.77 | +0.13 |
| WF7 | 2025-01-01 → 2026-06-02 | canonical | +0.69 | +2.20 |
Deep-dive thesis documents and operational playbook. All data-driven, regenerated from the live backtest.